CoinEx Research Report | January 2025: Bitcoin and counterfeit currency under the Trump trend

CoinEx The January 2025 report of the research department focuses on analyzing the severe market fluctuations this month, which are influenced by political dynamics, institutional participation, and macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin broke through $100000 to a record high, while counterfeit coins fell into a downturn because tokens related to Trump sucked away market liquidity. The rise of China's DeepSeeker AI model further disrupts the global technology and cryptocurrency markets, leading to valuation reset. The adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors continues to heat up, but the market downturn at the end of the month has raised concerns about potential consolidation.

The turbulent start of 2025

Bitcoin opened the new year at a price of approximately $92500 and closed at nearly $102000, demonstrating resilience in a volatile macroeconomic environment. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25% -4.50%, citing the continued strength of the labor market and persistent inflation, while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. The official Trump Memecoin and Trump related WorldLibertyFinance (WLFI) have attracted market attention, but their capital siphon effect has limited the growth of counterfeit coins. Under current market conditions, due to the lack of immediate positive catalysts, Bitcoin may enter a short-term consolidation phase.

Trump effect: meme boom, DeFi rapid expansion

As Donald Trump is about to become president, his influence in the encryption market has increased significantly. His team issued official Trump Memecoin on Solana's Meteora platform, avoiding traditional SOL ecological liquidity providers (such as Raydium). This move has pushed Solana's stablecoin supply to over $9 billion, a surge of 130%, and pushed Solana's decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume to a historic high of $258 billion, three times that of Ethereum. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of this meme once exceeded $70 billion, surpassing leading memes such as SHIB, pepe, and WIF.

The speculative boom continues to heat up. First Lady Melania Trump suddenly launched MelaniaToken, further promoting the market transaction activity. However, consecutive token issuances led to a depletion of market liquidity, ultimately triggering a pullback. At the same time, WorldLibertyFinance (WLFI) related to Trump, a DeFi project based on Ethereum, successfully raised more than 300 million dollars in the pre-sale stage. This shows that Trump's crypto narrative has gone beyond memetics and further penetrated into institutional DeFi products, combining speculative and financial attributes.

DeepSeeker AI hits the global market

The Chinese DeepSeeker AI model was officially released on the eve of the Lunar New Year, shaking the global AI and financial markets. The training cost of this model is much lower than its Western competitors. It adopts a Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture and optimizes computational efficiency by selectively activating the most relevant sub networks, greatly improving cost-effectiveness.

The debut of DeepSeek triggered a significant sell-off in US technology stocks, with Nvidia (NVDA) plummeting 17% in a single day, prompting investors to reassess the competitive landscape of AI. Cryptocurrency tokens related to AI have also suffered a heavy blow due to the rising market risk aversion. However, DeepSeek The rise of AI technology is not a fundamental threat to the market, but rather marks a necessary market adjustment that may accelerate the popularization of AI technology and bring new development opportunities to the cryptocurrency industry.

Institution wide adoption of Bitcoin and policy shift

In January, institutional participation in Bitcoin remained strong and was supported by multiple policy developments. Mark Uyeda, acting chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), set up a special cryptocurrency working group. President Trump signed an executive order in the first week of his term of office to promote cryptocurrency innovation and release the policy signal of wider adoption of cryptocurrency. In addition, the Illinois Legislature has pushed forward a bill to establish a state-level Bitcoin reserve, continuing Arizona's efforts to incorporate cryptocurrency into public finances.

Outside the United States, sovereign institutions have also increased the allocation ratio of Bitcoin. The Czech Central Bank has approved the inclusion of Bitcoin in its national reserves, while the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced a 150% year-on-year increase in its Bitcoin holdings, with a total amount exceeding $350 million. These trends indicate that government financial institutions and institutional investors are increasing their confidence in Bitcoin as a value storage tool.

The inflow of stablecoin funds and market caution sentiment

The inflow of funds into stablecoins remains strong, with approximately $9.9 billion flowing into the market in January, continuing the funding growth trend of the past three months and supporting the bullish pattern of the market. At the same time as Bitcoin reaches a historic high, these capital inflows further emphasize the importance of stablecoin liquidity for market momentum.

However, despite the overall optimistic market trend, the significant pullback at the end of January shows investors' cautious attitude. If the inflow of stablecoin funds slows down or even turns into a net outflow, the market may enter a consolidation stage, leading to an increase in volatility. Investors should closely monitor the cash flow of stablecoins as a key indicator of market sentiment.

Market Outlook for February 2025

Looking ahead to February, market trends will be influenced by institutional dynamics, regulatory policies, and the flow of stablecoin funds. Traders and investors should remain vigilant and adjust their strategies based on the macroeconomic environment and liquidity trends to cope with market changes

About CoinEx

CoinEx Established in 2017, adhering to the concept of customer first, we provide professional cryptocurrency trading services to over 10 million users worldwide. CoinEx supports spot, contract, leveraged trading, Swaps, and Automated Market Maker (AMM), with business coverage in over 200 countries and regions.

At present, CoinE x Supports 1200 cryptocurrencies and 1800 trading pairs, covering 18 language markets, and has the platform's native token CET. In addition, CoinEx is the first cryptocurrency exchange to release Proof of Reserves, committed to promoting transparency and security, providing a smooth and reliable trading experience for global users, and fulfilling the promise of being your cryptocurrency trading expert.

This article is provided by the official and does not represent the position or investment advice of our website. Readers must make their own careful evaluations.