Polymarket under fire for California’s wildfire market betting

Blockchain-based predictions platform Polymarket has been criticized for allowing users to bet on the Palisades wildfire in California. The wildfire, which has forced nearly 200,000 to evacuate, killed five people, and covered almost 30,000 acres, has become a subject of gambling on Polymarkets.

A quick search on the platform shows that there are currently nine bets relating to the fire, all with varying interests. Two bets – “How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn by Friday?” and “Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?” have over $90,000 in volume each. Other bets on the subject also had volumes varying from $53,000 to as low as $8,000.

Despite the clear interest in some quarters, many believe the bets are in bad taste and that an environmental disaster should not be turned into a gambling opportunity. Users on X questioned the reasoning behind such a bet, with one user describing it as immoral for anyone to bet on the spread of fire.

Perhaps what is even generating criticism is that Polymarket seems to have no scruples about these bets. It has been posting about them on its social media pages, a move seen as more publicity for the bets.

Some users also believe such bets could even incentivize someone to start a fire in Santa Monica and are calling for Polymarket to be banned. Writer and podcaster Tyler Harper noted that everything has been turned into a wager opportunity, which is evil and depraved.

He posted:

“The gamblification of everything is Evil in fullest sense of the word. Capital-E Evil.”

Meanwhile, some users consider those gambling on the Wildfire markets to be sick, with one person noting it is a sign of addiction and such people should check into rehab.

Polymarket defends wildfire markets

Despite criticisms about creating bets based on natural disasters, the platform has insisted that the predictions serve those who want unbiased and accurate information. Each bet on the Palisades wildfire contains a note stating that the predictions market only harnesses market wisdom to create unbiased forecasts.

The note reads:

“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events impacting society. The devastating Pacific Palisades fire is one such event.”

It added that users can get real-time and accurate information about such events from Polymarket in ways they cannot from traditional media. The platform noted that it does not charge any fees on the market. Although some, including business and tech reporter Thomas Maxwell, have called for Polymarket to be shut down, that is unlikely to happen as the platform does not even operate in the US.

Politics, sports, and economics driving Polymarket volume

Nevertheless, the predictions platform is not new to controversy. Since gaining popularity for correctly predicting the US presidential election in 2024, Polymarket has been at the center of a few controversies over market manipulation, with the FBI even raiding the home of its founder as part of an investigation.

Its latest controversy occurred a few weeks ago after some bettors alleged market manipulation over a bet on whether Israel will invade Syria in 2024. The oracle provider for the bet, UMA, failed to settle the market in favor of those who picked YES, as UMA voters voted against the settlement on two occasions. This led many to claim that it’s the major UMA token holders, i.e., the UMA whales, who are delaying the resolution for their advantage.

Meanwhile, Polymarket continued to thrive even after the election and has become one of the leading prediction platforms, with almost every issue open to wager in its markets. Although most of the wagers focus on sports events and political/economic news, users continue to bet on a wide range of topics. One bet about how many times Elon Musk would tweet within a week currently has $1 million in volume.

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